Future of the Australian Electricity Market

If there was not a threat of climate change and the need to rationalise the way we generate electricity, this thread would not have eventuated. The direction of the Australian electricity market is really a small part of the global picture. There are only a few diehards that deny the climate is warming, although quite a few more who deny that mankind is hugely responsible for tipping us over the edge. If it did not impact us in our everyday lives, we would probably accept it without a qualm.

I mention this as background to an article that came through a news feed highlighting Taylor Swifts's concert in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro.

Footage captures Taylor Swift 'gasping for breath' (thenewdaily.com.au)

I saw what I thought were reports of temperatures greater than 57°C!!! It is in fact a heat index, which is a composite figure comprising temperature and humidity. I had not heard of this term before, but probably really demonstrates that I should get out more.

When I looked further, the temperature was actually only (:rolleyes:) nudging 40°C (104°F). Still plenty hot enough for the end of Spring. We have already had 37°C (blood temperature?) where I live but not with high humidity, which literally becomes the real killer. I thought it interesting that this heat index was adopted, presumably to heighten the impact. Just another aspect to be wary of when quoting statistics.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Mr Brush

Marvel of engineering they may be, but: Here's What Makes The Tesla Model X So Unreliable
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Or a triumph of marketing over crap engineering?

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... I saw what I thought were reports of temperatures greater than 57°C!!! It is in fact a heat index, which is a composite figure comprising temperature and humidity. I had not heard of this term before, but probably really demonstrates that I should get out more. ...

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Surely not in those conditions. Paul.

OK Graeme, you've talked me out of it.

Phew!!

Regards
Paul

For those enthusiastic to use cars (Hi Brett) as a stored energy source overnight there is one small problem, car batteries are rated for x number of charging cycles so using a BEV for storage every night is going to reduce the battery cycles available to drive the car.

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

For those enthusiastic to use cars (Hi Brett) as a stored energy source overnight there is one small problem, car batteries are rated for x number of charging cycles so using a BEV for storage every night is going to reduce the battery cycles available to drive the car.

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Yes. However, as was shown some months ago (in this thread) the replacement cost of Mr B's BYD Atto battery rack is about $15k, around the same cost as a musky Powerwall, 'cept it's 3-4x the capacity, making it 25-33% of the price of a Powerwall.

Whatever you use (1x or 2x batteries) they are both going to wear out, just like the vehicle they are in, and just like the driver :D, so save the initial *rather high* investment of a Powerwall, and just put one battery in place. It's life will be shortened by using it as V2H, but it beats the hell out of investing in two battery systems. Notwithstanding Bob's very valid comment way back about needing some kind of 1/10 capacity battery being in place on the home system all the time to cope with outages and the like while the car is out shopping or whatever (presumably with an occupant).

However, I do think the whole battery landscape will change significantly when solid state batteries are a happening thing (1-2 years?). We are in a very transient developmental situation currently. It's a space to watch.

I will give you the real cost of supplying and fitting a new BYD vehicle battery in a few days. Do you take into account the depreciation of the car due to less re-charge cycles available. Master Parks re-charges once a week (7 days), if it was done every night how long would the battery last for and how much would it accelerate the depreciation of the vehicle?

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Originally Posted by Chris Parks

I will give you the real cost of supplying and fitting a new BYD vehicle battery in a few days. Do you take into account the depreciation of the car due to less re-charge cycles available. Master Parks re-charges once a week (7 days), if it was done every night how long would the battery last for and how much would it accelerate the depreciation of the vehicle?

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No, not really. Mr Brush said it was about $15k to replace the BYD battery, and a Tesla Powerwall is a similar price, but about 25% of the capacity.

So if the BYD battery wears out in say five years instead of ten, it sounds like you'd be ahead. Mind you, can't be done until V2H is up and running.

One of the main objections to EVs is the time taken to refuel. So does Nio's battery swap eradicate this objection?

Watch Nio EL7 Instantly Swap Its Battery In POV Video (msn.com)

I am relying on some of the technology minded among you as without a mobile or a Tik-Tok account I am unable to watch and I am hoping somebody can comment. My take is that unlike the promos by manufacturers, this one is from the user's perspective. It leads me to believe it takes about 3mins, which would be less than the time taken to refuel an ICE.

Sounds good. Is it? Not available in Oz yet, of course.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

One of the main objections to EVs is the time taken to refuel. So does Nio's battery swap eradicate this objection?

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Battery swapping was my suggestion of "the obvious solution" when EV's were first discussed years ago. You buy the car, and "rent" a battery with ongoing swaps for small recharging fees. It speeds up the refuelling process and removes the sudden large cost of replacing dying batteries. Done sensibly it would also allow batteries of different sizes, so you don't have to drag around a large battery (500kg to 900kg+) unless you are going on a long trip - most of the time you can use a small lightweight battery for city driving. Unfortunately such a system would require all the manufacturers of EV's to use a common standard, and that requires them to believe that the ongoing increase in EV sales is more profitable than selling a battery as part of the car to start with. It might also require them to share technology, and perhaps make it easier for new manufacturers to enter the market. So overall in our current market it probably wouldn't be a popular choice for the manufacturers!

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Originally Posted by Warb

Battery swapping was my suggestion of "the obvious solution" when EV's were first discussed years ago. You buy the car, and "rent" a battery with ongoing swaps for small recharging fees. It speeds up the refuelling process and removes the sudden large cost of replacing dying batteries. Done sensibly it would also allow batteries of different sizes, so you don't have to drag around a large battery (500kg to 900kg+) unless you are going on a long trip - most of the time you can use a small lightweight battery for city driving. Unfortunately such a system would require all the manufacturers of EV's to use a common standard, and that requires them to believe that the ongoing increase in EV sales is more profitable than selling a battery as part of the car to start with. It might also require them to share technology, and perhaps make it easier for new manufacturers to enter the market. So overall in our current market it probably wouldn't be a popular choice for the manufacturers!

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In india thousands of mopeds and scooters are already using swappable batteries but I think replaceable batteries for larger vehicles are unnecessary. Physically handling even a 50kg battery will requires specialised machinery and this creates heat another set of points where things can go wrong.

Owning and EV for ~6 months now my initial anxiety about range and charging time has all but evaporated and this should be the case for the vast majority of people who can charge at home. I can arrive home with a near empty battery and be ready to go for a full range trip by next morning using my home charger. This is a rare occurrence eg maybe once a month so it's not like many people will need to do this.
The battery issue is now more one for EV owners who
- live in apartments etc and have no access to a home charging facility
- are Towing
If an EV driver is going to be happy enough with a smaller battery ie smaller range for city driving, then all the driver has to do is not charge up as fully. A smaller battery then might be equivalent to about a 5 minute fast charge.

The towing issue is primarily logistical in that few current chargers allow for a "pull through" setup to charge. Constant unhitching to charge is a right PITA and can be easily fixed but having pull through charging bays like servos do. To further facilitate this charging rates could be scaled, ie the first 10kW are free, low charges for the next 10's of KW and high rates for to completely fill a battery.

Getting EV manufacturers to agree on a common anything has been done in regards the a; important charging plug. It has been a difficult negotiation but apart from the large VW group, has recently been achieved with all large manufacturers agreeing to use the Teslas plug configuration by 2025 and in the meantime adapter plugs can be used for 2024. This has been largely bought about because Tesla has installed tens of thousands of fast charger in Europe and North America so it allow non Tesla vehicles to use their chargers.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Owning and EV for ~6 months now my initial anxiety about range and charging time has all but evaporated and this should be the case for the vast majority of people who can charge at home. I can arrive home with a near empty battery and be ready to go for a full range trip by next morning using my home charger. This is a rare occurrence eg maybe once a month so it's not like many people will need to do this.

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EV's have always fascinated me from a "requirements" viewpoint. Range is a non-issue for most people living in cities, and frankly always has been. It was far more of an issue for people in rural areas, where a drive of several hundred kilometres is far more common, but as EV range has improved even for these people things have improved. Sometimes it is still a problem - my wife has just started a 5 hour drive, which would stress most EV's, but that's no longer a regular occurrence. Having said that, a 6 hour return trip to drop my daughter in Sydney does happen fairly regularly.

The concept of being able to swap to a smaller battery is for overall energy saving. Whilst we can suggest that an EV is better for the climate (marginal/variable unless all the electricity is from renewables), surely using less in total is better still? So avoiding lugging around a battery, which is very heavy (Telsa S 544Kg, Tesla Y 771kg), would save overall power usage, and thus benefit the environment even further. Assuming that a smaller and lighter battery used for short distance city travel would have an equivalent life expectancy to a larger heavier one, it would also be less of a recycling issue at EOL. So an all-round win. My original concept was for a drive-over mechanism to automatically swap the batteries and put the old one on a rack to recharge. These cars are made by robots on a production line, so I don't see that a battery replacement system should require much manual intervention. It also removes the requirement for the vehicle to sit at a recharging station to refuel. I realise that recharging is getting faster, but only if the very large amounts of power are available. Yesterday at the Marulan (M31) services there was a constant stream of vehicle refuelling at the 10 (?) pumps. If each of those was an ultra fast charger (30 minutes?), the queue would still have gone back to Sydney and the service station would have required it's own pocket nuclear reactor! A 3-minute battery swap, however, with batteries charged more slowly 24/7, requires only a warehouse with suitable racking and a vastly smaller power feed. The issue here is that we have to be thinking of the future, when (presumably) all cars are EV's, rather than the present when most are still ICE.

What really intrigues me however is the need for a "big" EV, when most only ever contain the driver. The same, by the way, applies to ICE vehicles. I suppose it comes back to the same old problem, that people "want climate action" but don't want to make any sacrifice (or effort?) themselves. We would solve so many problems, not only with emissions but also congestion and parking, by using small EV's for city travel, but we still insist on buying a BIG vehicle, presumably to demonstrate our status.

Edit: Continuing on from my "thinking of the future" comment, a swappable battery, if done cleverly, would also allow for the easy adoption of new battery technologies. Given a standardised pack voltage and form factor, it shouldn't matter what battery technology is used, so when someone devises a new/better/cheaper/lighter battery it can simply be put in the standard form factor case and used by any car on the road.

RE:My original concept was for a drive-over mechanism to automatically swap the batteries and put the old one on a rack to recharge.

I seriously doubt this will ever happen. Tesla tried the battery swap idea and even demonstrated a 2 minute turn around, but have instead opted for faster chargers (350kW) but right now battery charging speed is the limit (250kW) so they need to speed them up.

Right now I can fast charge (up to 150kW) at very small country town locations like Jurien Bay. Lancelin, and Walpole.
Any small country battery swap location with say 20 batteries on 7 kW trickle charge will need a high capacity charger a(ie 20 x7 - 140kW) anyway.
So cost wise the small country location needs to provide a fast charger, the cost of 20 batteries being charged, AND a very expensive battery charging mechanism!
And on top of that anything with a even a hint of mechanical components requires regular checking and servicing so more added expense.
Users would be better served by 2x more chargers ie double the capacity and/or halve the charge time.

I'm intrigued that dedicated EV charging station/cafes are not opening up, if you have someone trapped at a location for say 20 minutes, this becomes an invaluable opportunity to get them to cough up money :)

A city based battery swap setup would need say 150+ batteries @ say 7 kW of power so 1+MW
Once agin better installing more fast chargers.
Economically it doesn't stack up.

As for the petrol station analogy you are missing one important point in that most EVs will start long journeys ie leave home with a full battery, whereas every ICE vehicle has to go to a petrol station to fuel up. The sticking points are major highway locations which is where these sorts of setups will be needed.

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Originally Posted by BobL

I seriously doubt this will ever happen.

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I will pretty much guarantee that it will never happen, because it doesn't suit the EV manufacturers. At present they can sell you a vehicle at whatever price they like, then sell you a replacement battery at whatever price they like, then enforce a built-in obsolescence policy by changing something relatively trivial.

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Originally Posted by BobL

Right now I can fast charge (up to 150kW) at very small country town locations like Jurien Bay. Lancelin, and Walpole.
Any small country battery swap location with say 20 batteries on 7 kW trickle charge will need a high capacity charger a(ie 20 x7 - 140kW) anyway.
So cost wise the small country location needs to provide a fast charger, the cost of 20 batteries being charged, AND a very expensive battery charging mechanism!
And on top of that anything with a even a hint of mechanical components requires regular checking and servicing so more added expense.
Users would be better served by 2x more chargers ie double the capacity and/or halve the charge time.

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You are assuming that the two systems, charging and swapping, are mutually exclusive. I'm assuming that you can still charge your swappable battery at home, or at a winery that you're visiting, or outside McDonalds. But you can also swap it on a motorway service station, where you want it done quickly and it's difficult to supply enough power to fast charge sufficient vehicles. Those wishing to stop for lunch can charge up, whilst those in a hurry can swap.

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Originally Posted by BobL

I'm intrigued that dedicated EV charging station/cafes are not opening up, if you have someone trapped at a location for say 20 minutes, this becomes an invaluable opportunity to get them to cough up money :)

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Indeed, but now imagine their ire when they arrive to find no chargers available because people are still eating when their vehicle finished charging 20 minutes ago. In a normal petrol station people are infuriated when someone decides to go to the bathroom or do some shopping (those pesky petrol+minisupermarket things!), imagine that scenario when they know they're going to have to wait 30minutes to charge their own battery, and all the chargers are already full!

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Originally Posted by BobL

A city based battery swap setup would need say 150+ batteries @ say 7 kW of power so 1+MW

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The city based servo wouldn't need anything like that, because the majority of people would charge at home, or at work. It's really only the long journeys and freeway stations that are affected. When EV's really take off, I suspect the majority of in-town servo's will simply go bust.

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Originally Posted by BobL

As for the petrol station analogy you are missing one important point in that most EVs will start long journeys ie leave home with a full battery, whereas every ICE vehicle has to go to a petrol station to fuel up. The sticking points are major highway locations which is where these sorts of setups will be needed.

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Both these points are (should be?) True. Although people can fill up the night before, even now, and often don't! I suspect that as you say, those who can charge at home will probably do so, although what that will do to the grid on the night before a public holiday might be interesting to see! As I have said, the long distance motorway trips are where the problem lies!

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Originally Posted by Warb

Indeed, but now imagine their ire when they arrive to find no chargers available because people are still eating when their vehicle finished charging 20 minutes ago. In a normal petrol station people are infuriated when someone decides to go to the bathroom or do some shopping (those pesky petrol+minisupermarket things!), imagine that scenario when they know they're going to have to wait 30minutes to charge their own battery, and all the chargers are already full!

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FWIW Unlike a petrol pump, EVs are tied before charging to a CC so anyone that overstays their allowed time at an EV charge point increasingly finds themselves paying a time penalty of currently a $1/minute.

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The city based servo wouldn't need anything like that, because the majority of people would charge at home, or at work. It's really only the long journeys and freeway stations that are affected. When EV's really take off, I suspect the majority of in-town servo's will simply go bust.

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Many apartment residing EV users esp in big cities wont be able to charge at home.

Very few servos actually make money on fuel - the profit is made by the fuel companies - the servos operators make their money on the extras they sell. Eventually the fuel companies will have to start closing servo sites or convert them to charging stations. Companies like Shell are well ahead and currently has more than 40,000 public charge points globally for electric vehicles at forecourts, retail sites and destinations. By 2025, they expect to have around 70,000 public EV charge points and around 200,000 by 2030 globally. se Electric Vehicle Charging | Shell Global
Lots of charging stations are opening up at shopping centres .

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Both these points are (should be?) True. Although people can fill up the night before, even now, and often don't! I suspect that as you say, those who can charge at home will probably do so, although what that will do to the grid on the night before a public holiday might be interesting to see! As I have said, the long distance motorway trips are where the problem lies!

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Most EV users with home charging capabilities dont let their vehicles batteries drop down to near zero. They plug in every night so most would already be 70-80% full before the long weekend so don't usually have to completely charge from empty.

I agree on the last point