Modelling for the USA and many other countries
Looking again this morning at the modelling for the USA that I have been regularly following, they are still tracking close to the projection of about 70k deaths by 4 August, provided they retain full social distancing to the end of May.
The projection for today (17 April) was about 32K total deaths and Woldometer is reporting about 34.5k. The number bounce around a bit, but at this rate they may do better than Spain and Italy per capita, but the projections for those (see pull down country options) are nearing their peak whereas the USA has a long way to go yet and there is still a lot of upside uncertainty built into the US projections.
Remove the social distancing that is built into the modelling for each of the countries/locations before the end of May and that will produce very different projected outcomes.
See third chart here.
There is a lot of very rich data in the modelling, like the projected peak and ICU bed shortages at peak demand. No wonder Spain, Italy, the UK and New York have struggled as can be clearly seen by pulling down the charts for each of those places.
Note: Many countries, large and small, are included in the modelling, but not Australia. Why am I'm not surprised!