Damp after rain..

So gutters overflowed with torrential sideways rain all weekend.. Just noticed some bubbling paint around corner of base of window.. Albeit stupid question but do you think the wet plaster in the corner of the window is due to a small leak at around window (in which case I will silicone around exterior of window).. Or do you think it's from overflow box gutter (gutters were fully blocked and overflowing like Niagra falls) then eves then entering into the wall cavity? See photo.. (Note - image should be rotated once to the right 90 degrees- dark area is at bottom).
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