Peak Oil

[Grunt]

I watched Catalyst the other week and they had an article on Peak Oil. Peak oil is the point in time when extraction of oil from the earth reaches its highest point and then begins to decline. We won't be able to say with certainty when we have reached peak oil until after the fact. Many experts say we have already reached the peak. Others say not yet, but within the next few years.

I've been doing a little research via google and the things I've found are quite frightening.

We live in a society that is completely and utterly dependant on oil. Everything around you is there as a result of oil. The price of oil will begin to rise sharply at some point in the future. What will the economic effect be when the price of petrol reaches $5 a litre? How about $10 a litre? This could occur in the next 3 to 5 years.

The problem won't be having enough petrol to get to the supermarket but when we get there the shelves will be empty. For every kilojoule of food we eat, it takes 10 kilojoules of oil to produce it, package it and transport it.

We simply cannot produce enough food to feed the developed worlds population without oil.

Cheap oil has fuelled the growth of our civilisation over the last 150 years. The lack of cheap oil will be the death of it.

The economy will simply grind to a halt. The great depression will be a cake walk in comparison. 5 billion people could starve. The developed nations will be the worst hit as we have the greatest reliance on oil.

Modern civilisation is completely unprepared for this event. There is no viable alternative for oil.

Have a look at a few of these website.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html


Have a pleasant evening.

[Auld Bassoon]

G'day Grunt!

Good reading eh?

None of this should come as a real surprise, but we all, perhaps, are somewhat guilty of "playing the ostrich".

Makes me almost glad I'm starting to get old...

Cheers!

[Termite]

An old marketing ploy......induce panic and people will pay anything.

Call me a cynic if you like but you young blokes take note when you're my age and see if there is an oil shortage or if you're just paying through the nose.

Case scenario:- Its time for Sheik El-Raghead to make his regular purchase of 150 Mercedes for the immediate family. Whack a shortage on, up the prices for a while, buy the Merc's with the extra dough, return prices to normal, cost of the 150 Mercs....SFA!

And if you think I'm joking then speak to a few people who've worked in those areas.

[Auld Bassoon]

An old marketing ploy......induce panic and people will pay anything.



Hi Termite!

Once I thought along similar lines, but no longer, and not for some time.

Clearly, there is a finite amount of recoverable oil, and the use of oil and associated/derived products is increasing. Logically, there has to be a point at which demand exceeds supply.

As the articles which are referred to will attest, most of the "western" world's economy is based on two key factore: growth and the availability of energy to, as it were, fuel that.

Take away growth due to the lack of energy to drive industry, and a rather nasty downwards spiral ensues.

On that cheery note, let the darksiders protect the earth:eek: :) :D

Cheers!

[bsrlee]

Won't bother Dubbya's mates, they'll just roll in the Army & take what they want. Dubbya may be genuine & beleive what he says, but his backers & cronies are a right nest of snakes.

That's up until the oil really does run out all together, then they'll be really in the squidgy brown stuff.

Oz will have some hard times, specially when they can't make fertilizers or power the big harvesting machines, but we have a fair bit of coal & could make reasonably efficient steam rail loco's, and possibly go back to the old steam tractors for distribution of what can be grown - at least for another century or so until the mineable coal runs out.

But being a child of the 1950's, I don't think I'll be around when the coal runs out.

[Skew ChiDAMN!!]

A couple of good things about having seen past scares, it has made the general public aware of the problem and it has induced people to find alternatives now.

For most petro-based materials there are alternatives, it just ain't economically viable to switch. Yet. I can't see a crisis "coming on all sudden-like," it seems more likely to me to be a gradual conversion. Prices for most synthetic materials & fuels will go up but as alternative methods improve prices for others will, eventually, come down.

I doubt if it'll come to a case of economic and social upheaval with anarchists running riot and Mad Max living just down the road.

But I won't pretend it's not a problem either...

[Grunt]

Oil wars are a real possiblity.

Coal isn't too good a running trucks, cars and tractors. These are the things that get our food to the supermarket. The environmental impact of using coal to replace oil would be catastrophic. We use 30 billion barrels of oil a day and that is increasing with the advent of the industrialisation of China and India.

We're not going to run out of oil, it will just get much much more expensive.

Look what happened to the price of oil when a couple of hurricanes were in the Gulf of Mexico. They were minor inconvienences and the price sky rocketted.

The past oil scares where in 1973 and '79. These were caused by in the first instance Saudi Arabia getting cheesed off at the U.S. and their support for Israel and in 1979, Iran wanting to hurt the U.S. because of the freezing of Iranning assets. Both of these events were political.

In history, the collapses of civilisations have happened remarkably quickly.

You should do a search on 'Peak Oil' in google and have a bit of a read.

[Clinton1]

I doubt if it'll come to a case of economic and social upheaval with anarchists running riot and Mad Max living just down the road.

Don't say that, my plan for a private fiefdom relies on that.

Seriously, there are alternatives, it is just "too" expensive to throw R&D $ into them to get them into the mainstream.

in "time line" order of the rise of hydrocarbon alternatives:
geothermics (aussie company that just won a business award),
latest lithium batteries in series/parrallel for electric cars,
Brasils ethanol push (check out the rise in world sugar prices due to brasilian production being diverted from food to fuel),
hybrid cars (well done Toyota),
hydrogen buses in Perth,
Victorian wind energy projects,
solar,
biofuels,
the reduce, recycle, reuse meme (I've been waiting all day to get to use the word "meme" :) ),
solar panels for domestic hotwater services.

Slowly the alternatives are coming on line. I reckon that it is a matter of voting with the wallet, and not the brain, but then intelligent, logical and ethical decisions are not what people (myself included) are renown for making.

[Bodgy]

Any deisel engine can run on veggie oil. Add a bit of ethanol and you're laughing. We produce enough sunflowers or whatever to take care of our domestic needs. The old sugar barons could float the Titanic on a days production of ethanol.

Like all these scares it's got a ploitical aspect. Treated veggie oil is available now and some commercial truck fleets use it. The big problem is our grasping politicians tax it like petrol.

With our Uranium we could also produce cheap electricity thru nuclear power, that leaves a lot of coal left.

Its an emminently solvable 'crisis' just too many vested interests and gutless, visionless politicians

Pragmatic answer - buy shares in Woodside and BHP and sit back and count your dividends.

[Greg Q]

I too think that we are close to peak oil. I recall the aftermath of the '74 oil crisis: the lay-offs in the auto industry, and the flow-on effects from that.
Economists call that 'stagflation'...low or no growth yet inflating prices, and it is ugly to watch. In fact, it makes people think ugly thoughts, hence most
70's fashion and architecture.;)

Without trying to be provacative, I agree with Bodgy on nuclear (or nukular, as George W. would say). We are sitting on some of the most geologically stable ground and have an abundance of Uranium. On the other hand, we do have lots of sun and wind, too.

I'd like to hear an explanation of why desalination plants (to allude to yet another crisis) can't be powered by solar/wind.

Greg

[Bodgy]

I'd like to hear an explanation of why desalination plants (to allude to yet another crisis) can't be powered by solar/wind.

Greg

Basically they're too hungry.

Solar cells are too expensive for the mega watt. Same with wind, and you've got the problem of sites. As technology moves, they will get more efficient but a long way to go.

Have a look at the power the proposed Sydney desal plants needs. Its frightening.

I read that Tasy has so much potential spare power that they could also power Victoria. Problem is the pollies wont pay the $$ for the cross Bass Strait cable. Also heard they were re-considering it. Bit out of touch there.

Its a dangerous thing to say but I think Nuclears got a lot going for it.

[lesmeyer]

Guys,
just to let you know that coal can power cars, trucks, diesel engines and more.
HOW?? - do you ask.
Well, in South Africa there is a company called SASOL. They manufacture oil from coal. This is what provided 40% of South Africa's oil during the apartheid/embargo years (1970 to 1990). South Africa has about double the number of vehicles on the road compared to OZ. In fact they currently produce oil from coal cheaper than what oil costs on the world market.
The catch is that the setup costs are high. It takes about 10 - 15 years to recover the cost.
So, all is not lost - yet.
Regards
Les:)

[craigb]

"We'll all be rooned,
said Henrahan if it
don't ...."

I'm not saying that peak oil isn't real, but what can I do about it?
Therefore why should I spend any time beating myself up over it?

I'm more likely to be a victim of a car crash/ heart attack/ shark bite than I am of peak oil.

I don't worry about the former so why should I worry about the latter?

Que sera sera.

[Grunt]

BioDiesel & Ethanol: To grow crops for these takes a great deal of fertilisers and pesticides which are both petrol chemicals. Also, there is a space issue. It takes 11 acres of corn to produce enough ethanol to power a car for a year. Also, there is no alternative fuel for jet airplanes.

Nuclear: Nuclear power isn't suitable for powering vehicles. 2/3 of all oil is used in transport. To replace the worlds 10,000 odd coal and oil fired power generators with Nuclear ones would be one extraordinarily expensive and two we would run out of uranium quite quickly. A Nuclear power plant costs around $3-5 billion to build. The price of uranium is already increasing rapidly without the additional demand caused by more and more Nuclear power plants being built.

Solar: Doesn't work for transport. The total of all the world’s solar cells produces barely as much power as 2 coal fire power stations. To provide the same power as is needed today the world would need 220,000 square kilometres of photo cells. Currently, there are about 10 square kilometres of solar cells.

Wind: Again, doesn't work for transport. It takes 17,000 wind turbines to provide the same power as a single 555 megawatt gas powered station.

Coal: Coal is kind of messy when used to produce electricity. If coal was used to fire all the world’s electrical generators then it will be kind of hard to breath. Using coal to produce synthetic oil will soften the blow but not stop the energy crisis. The demand for coal will increase sharply. Coal will also reach a peak production quite quickly, like in the next 10 to 15 years. Within a couple of decades will actually cost more energy to extract coal from the earth than we would get back.


The world can do something about this. This topic isn't on the political agenda because the government who initiates the measures to reduce our oil consumption will make our lives in the short term quite unpleasant will simply be voted out of office.

We need to make drastic changes now.

[Grunt]

I'm more likely to be a victim of a car crash/ heart attack/ shark bite than I am of peak oil.


This will happen, it really is just a case of when. If optimists say 30 years before we run out, the pessimists say 2 - 3 years before the panic sets in and we have an economic meltdown. The truth is probably in between but within your lifetime.

[rodm]

I have no doubt that we are going to face some very tough times with fossil fuel and climate change. But don’t worry too much because the bird flu will reduce the impact of both of these. :D

It was summed up very well by a statement I read that said, “Global Economy is the problem and not the solution.”

It is not worth worrying too much about things that haven’t happened yet and our economies would collapse if we over reacted now. It will happen but it will be the commercial sector that will trigger change – not us. When they no longer have a market because the commodity is priced too high then governments will react and investment will flow to alternatives. We are all in the same boat and there is little we can do but have faith that there will be a solution.

There are groups thinking and working towards solutions. Transport is a huge problem and yet it is very inefficient. Think of how many deliveries are made to your local shopping centre each day. Also think of the number of vehicles you see that only have the driver behind the wheel - I am guilty too. Just two examples of how energy is taken for granted.

At the moment I see Nuclear Fusion as the energy source of the future. It still hasn’t been perfected yet but it generates less radiation than Nuclear Fission so it should be safer to use. I believe France is about to build a plant. There is potential for Nuclear Fusion to provide all our energy needs because we know how to store energy and alternatives fuels such as hydrogen can be produced at economic levels. Ten years ago I would have been strongly opposed to Nuclear energy but I think it is our shining light and safest energy source for the future. You might question safest energy source but I compare using fossil fuels to be like the effects of smoking and Nuclear to be like getting hit by a truck.

Just a biit of a rant and don't take it too seriously.

[Bodgy]

This will happen, it really is just a case of when. If optimists say 30 years before we run out, the pessimists say 2 - 3 years before the panic sets in and we have an economic meltdown. The truth is probably in between but within your lifetime.

Buy the stock, guys:

Woodside
BHP
and, if Grunts correct about the Uranium, ERA hoping they get the Indigene's approval for the other sites.

Grunt, just a small issue. You say there's not enough Uranium. Maybe true, on a global scale, but we've got enough for ourselves. Problem is we'd probably have to fight the other bastards to stop them taking it.

Addit re nuclear safety: More coal miners die in China each year than have ever died from Nuclear accidents.

[craigb]

This will happen, it really is just a case of when. If optimists say 30 years before we run out, the pessimists say 2 - 3 years before the panic sets in and we have an economic meltdown. The truth is probably in between but within your lifetime.

O.K, say I accept the timeline. Apart from panicking, what can I do about it?

I guess I could buy a few acres and learn to grow vegies but apart from that, I'm stuffed.

I'm not dissing it, I know its a very real problem, but there is also an element of Chicken Little to it too for mine.

Perhaps it will just accelerate the move to the hydrogen economy?

[Clinton1]

I would not dismiss alternative energy resourses without considering the amount of R&D spending, or lack thereof, and the consequences of that.

Also, another question is: will the management of companies like BHP and Woodside be sitting on their hands saying "oh well, a few more years and we are all out of job".

Solar panels (and all alternative fuels) now are, to use an analogy, at the stage the Wright brothers plane was with 15 years R&D effort. Eventually the technology got to the Moon and Mars, and gave us the Airbus. The R&D $ won't be spent till things go a little further down the supply crisis road. I think it is a consequence of well informed investors making decisions based on more information we have available to us, as well as an equal part of avoidance of the issue.

I do think the large companies with heavy investments in the hydrocarbon industry will eventually move into other forms of energy supply, however I'd expect they will do it in a manner that ensures maximum returns on current investment.

I think that the stage we are at now is best demonstrated by Tenix buying the resources of Environmental Solutions International: ESI ran the Subiaco (WA) Sewage Farm and turned the poo supply into electricity to run the plant and to sell back into the electricity grid. Other outputs included CO2 and water. A great idea that got nowhere commercially due to a lot of reasons, including the economics of dumping sewage into the sea. Now one of the larger Aust companies holds the idea, and will be looking to protect the concept and hang onto it until it becomes economical to use. http://www.tenix.com/News2.asp?ID=147
Would Tenix (who I though was a Defence Industry sector company)buying this, and moving into Powerco Energy Services http://www.tenix.com/News2.asp?ID=148 be an example of the corporate world gearing up of the supply crisis?

An idea before its time can also go nowhere fast.